Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.126271 11.865465 13.771854 16.010995 18.563034 21.375031 24.701760
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 7.529253 9.911005 12.787839 16.491726 21.104238 26.627105 33.705011
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 5.607721 8.186967 11.579093 16.303549 22.639277 30.758913 41.853577
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 4.167311 6.690332 10.274117 15.625539 23.278641 33.671206 48.655285
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 3.200119 5.606800 9.272967 15.098039 23.910912 36.490443 55.474574
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.632463 4.988371 8.806680 15.210849 25.379401 40.519841 64.257624
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.135941 4.367795 8.206942 14.984328 26.241528 43.667732 71.956950
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.904575 4.157901 8.235106 15.748375 28.702259 49.404039 83.973730
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.650557 3.847077 8.025804 16.056526 30.411730 54.064511 94.637946
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.410012 3.508322 7.702978 16.101899 31.648298 58.023800 104.437870
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.210706 3.210734 7.404956 16.138528 32.846246 61.979203 114.478031
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.149596 3.208075 7.691728 17.319263 36.215239 69.867505 131.625028
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.043645 3.085050 7.724515 18.032146 38.841691 76.767993 147.761170
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.945258 2.960111 7.736452 18.709754 41.480403 83.918870 164.886229
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.804341 2.689747 7.376802 18.555081 42.466656 88.138318 177.104971
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.653332 2.349145 6.789623 17.816205 42.182571 89.950761 185.064996
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.536693 2.073069 6.305258 17.232084 42.139518 92.188558 193.924812
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.470081 1.932030 6.137997 17.361790 43.622569 97.489146 208.879282
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.398425 1.751806 5.831648 17.108562 44.230722 101.079199 220.758336
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.374683 1.731638 5.964558 17.966919 47.412314 110.092398 243.742402
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.337077 1.648947 5.902428 18.312940 49.439806 116.844457 262.605941
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.295812 1.538479 5.737146 18.363927 50.776675 122.233593 279.037362
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.259692 1.436109 5.576805 18.405057 52.089259 127.650712 295.824833